DELTAGENCYWhat counts as an AI Event?

A Crowdsourced Human Forecast

AI DOOMSDAY CLOCK

Median predicted date: Jul 1, 2032.

The median prediction from 13 humans.

Humanity’s crowd forecast for the first catastrophic AI-triggered event.

Median prediction
Jul 1, 2032
25th percentile
2029
75th percentile
2038
Never
0%
Human predictions
13

When Does It Happen?

What Does Humanity Think Happens?

  • Grid / infra / internet failure
    23%
  • Other catastrophic event
    23%
  • Nuclear / bio / chem event
    15%
  • Financial / supply chain disruption
    15%
  • Autonomous cyberattack
    8%
  • Disinformation / psych manipulation
    8%
  • AI-enabled authoritarian takeover
    8%

Track the Clock

See how humanity’s forecast changes over time.

What Is the AI Doomsday Clock?

The AI Doomsday Clock is a crowdsourced forecasting project that measures when people believe artificial intelligence may first initiate a catastrophic event with widespread global consequences. Every participant casts one prediction — a date, a year, or “never” — and the giant clock displays the live median of all dated predictions.

It is crowdsourced opinion, not scientific consensus. It is not an official prediction, and it is not affiliated with the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists or their Doomsday Clock. It is a running measurement of what people expect — which is itself worth watching.

“Catastrophic AI event” here means things like: autonomous cyberattack, grid / infra / internet failure, ai-triggered military conflict, nuclear / bio / chem event, financial / supply chain disruption, disinformation / psych manipulation, ai-enabled authoritarian takeover, scientific misuse event, or a broader loss-of-control event.

As of October 9, 2026, 13 humans have submitted predictions to the AI Doomsday Clock. The current median forecast is July 1, 2032. The most commonly predicted event category is grid / infra / internet failure. This is crowdsourced prediction data, updated continuously.

Methodology

  • Predictions are crowdsourced; only human-verified submissions are included.
  • One active prediction per anonymous participant — revisions update, never duplicate.
  • The clock shows the median of dated predictions; averages are not used because outliers would distort them.
  • “Never” predictions are tracked separately as a percentage and excluded from the median.
  • Year-only predictions are normalized to the midpoint of the chosen year for statistical calculation, while the participant’s selected precision is preserved.
  • Abusive or bot activity may be removed from the dataset.
  • Public messages are moderated independently from the underlying prediction — a rejected message never removes a vote.
  • This is a measurement of public expectation, not scientific polling.

FAQ

When does the public think AI will cause a catastrophic event?
The current median prediction from 13 participants is July 1, 2032. This number moves as new predictions arrive, so treat it as a live reading, not a fixed forecast.
What AI catastrophe do people think is most likely?
The most commonly predicted event category is currently "Grid / infra / internet failure". The full category breakdown — cyberattack, infrastructure failure, military conflict, nuclear, biological, financial-system disruption, and loss of control — is shown live on this page.
How is the AI Doomsday Clock calculated?
The clock shows the median of all dated predictions — the date at which half of participants expect the event sooner and half later. We use the median rather than the average so extreme outlier predictions can't distort the result. Year-only predictions are normalized to the midpoint of the chosen year for calculation.
How many people have participated?
13 human-verified predictions have been logged so far, including participants who predict such an event will never happen.
What does "Never" mean?
Participants can predict that AI will never cause a catastrophic, globally consequential event. "Never" votes are stored separately, shown as a percentage, and deliberately excluded from the median date — the clock reflects only dated predictions.
Can I change my prediction?
Yes. Each anonymous participant has one active prediction and can revise it at any time. A revision updates your existing prediction — it never counts twice.
Is this related to the original Doomsday Clock?
No. This is an independent crowdsourced forecasting project built by Deltagency. It is not affiliated with, or endorsed by, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, whose Doomsday Clock is a separate, expert-set symbol.